With US President Donald Trump’s mandate ending in January, his administration is reportedly preparing to designate Yemen’s Houthis—formally known as ‘Ansar Allah’—as a “foreign terrorist organization” (FTO), as part of a broader effort to exert more pressure on their major ally and supporter, Iran. However, the move could severely disrupt international relief efforts within the war-torn nation and upend ongoing UN-brokered peace negotiations between the group and the internationally recognized Yemeni government, pushing Yemen into further conflict and chaos.
The Trump administration had previously considered such a move back in 2018 but decided against it partly due to humanitarian concerns. And that was the right call. 80% of the country’s population—approximately 24 million people—require some form of humanitarian assistance or psychological support to survive, a majority of whom live in Houthi-controlled areas, and the coronavirus pandemic has only made the situation worse. An FTO designation of the entire Houthi movement would significantly hamper these efforts by potentially exposing aid workers to criminal penalties for merely interacting with the group in order to gain access to vulnerable populations.
As a result, relief organizations would be forced to spend more time and (their already scarce) resources ensuring that they are in compliance with a confusing web of financial sanctions. Though the US Treasury could issue exemptions to allow certain activities, the process to obtain them is often lengthy and costly, barely matching the urgency usually required for responses, which could delay the delivery of aid. The label could also dissuade donors from providing more financial support for humanitarian programs, scare banks or insurance companies from working with aid groups or spark retaliation by Houthi forces—a fear that has led the United Nations (UN) to urge American aid workers to get out of Houthi-controlled areas.
But besides boxing in (I)NGOs in their ability to effectively assist Yemenis caught in the midst of famine, disease, and war, what would the designation achieve? Not much, really. Certain senior Houthi leaders are already subject to US and UN sanctions—which involve travel bans and asset freezes—but the individuals do not travel often or use the international banking system that would be impacted by the designation.
The US’ actions are in line with the general framing of the Yemeni conflict as a regional power struggle against Iran. However, despite its overt military and technical support to the group, Tehran has limited influence on Houthi tactics, which means conflating Houthi and Iranian interests will do no good. The persistence of such a faulty approach will only make it tougher and tougher to negotiate with the Houthis and carve out a plan for bringing and sustaining peace in the country.
The UN has been attempting to broker successful talks in Yemen for many years now, and it was only last month that Special Envoy Martin Griffiths negotiated a massive prisoner swap between the warring sides, with the hope of reviving the stalled peace process. Though the parties signed the Stockholm agreement in 2018 to cease hostilities and open humanitarian aid corridors, the lack of political will and institutional capacity to effectively implement plans has led to the systemic collapse of the Yemeni economy and state infrastructure, resulting in a dangerous cycle of unending violence and political upheaval. A key part of the Stockholm deal was the exchange of a total of 15,000 detainees between both sides, but the pact has been slowly and only partially implemented. Griffiths said that the latest prisoner exchange will be an important step towards building trust between the parties, which could pave the way for the long-sought national ceasefire to end the war.
Griffiths, along with career defense and security experts, as well as aid organizations, have urged the Trump administration to reconsider the designation as it could throw a wrench in confidence-building efforts among the warring sides, with some calling out the president for engaging in a dangerous gamble just to make things more complicated for the incoming Biden administration.
An FTO designation is a political act, and the administration could have pushed forward with it at any time over the last four years. However, the choice to do it now shows Trump’s attempts to complicate President-elect Biden’s approach to the crisis in Yemen. The Trump administration, which is still denying its electoral loss, has not shied away from taking major political actions and stances in its final days—whether it’s been Pompeo’s visit to an Israeli settlement in the West Bank and the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, or the decision to impose ‘a flood’ of sanctions on Iran to prevent the US from rejoining the JCPOA—to maintain a destructive legacy beyond his chaotic term.
The designation also has nothing to do with the harm the Houthis have inflicted on innocent civilians over the last five years. The Saudi-led coalition has done the same (under the guise of defending the internationally recognized Yemeni government), and the US continues to support its bombing campaign through extensive arms sales. The Trump administration has justified its actions by stating that American involvement helps to limit civilian casualties by working with the Saudis on accurate targeting and rules of engagement, despite data showing that that’s just not the case. According to an estimate by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), 125,000 people have died due to violence in Yemen since 2015, including 13,500 civilians in targetted attacks, the vast majority by the Saudi-led coalition.
The situation in Yemen has shown that it cannot have a military solution, and Biden has made it clear that he not only intends to pursue a diplomatic approach to the crisis but also assess US-Saudi relations and end support for the Saudi-led war in the country. However, the reversing of an FTO designation is an arduous and complex bureaucratic process, and by the time the new administration is able to do it, significant and irreversible damage to the Yemeni people will already be done.
Trump’s Plan to Designate the Houthis Terrorists Is a Recipe for Disaster
The reversing of a designation is an arduous and complex process, and by the time the new administration is able to do it, significant and irreversible damage to Yemen will already be done.
November 25, 2020
SOURCE: MIDDLE EAST EYE