Senior Pentagon officials believe that a Chinese blockade on Taiwan would be a “monster risk” for Beijing and would likely fail.
Likeliness of Failure
Speaking to the House Armed Services Committee, Dr Ely Ratner, the Pentagon’s assistant defence secretary for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, said a blockade would “likely not succeed, and it would be a huge risk of escalation for the People's Republic of China (PRC), where it would likely have to "consider whether or not it was willing to ultimately start attacking commercial maritime vessels.”
The official further opined that a blockade against Taiwan would be “devastating to the international community” and would “likely induce the broad-based wide deep response from the international community,” a situation he said Beijing would “likely be trying to avoid.”
Strategic Risks
US Army Major Gen. Joseph McGee, a vice director of the Joint Staff, echoed Ratner’s opinion on the matter, saying that while a military blockade of the self-governing island is “an option [...] it is probably not a highly likely military option,” given that “it is much easier to talk about a blockade than actually do a blockade.”
I'm testifying before Congress today about how the @DeptofDefense is delivering on our commitment to peace and deterrence across the Taiwan Strait and in the wider Indo-Pacific region. Watch live: https://t.co/KvxL62eRPd
— Dr. Ely Ratner (@ASD_IndoPacific) September 19, 2023
Referring to Taiwan’s mountainous terrain and the Taiwan Strait creating a natural separation from China, McGee added that “there is absolutely nothing easy about a PLA [Chinese People’s Liberation Army] invasion of Taiwan.”
“They would have to mass tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of troops on the eastern coast, and that would be a clear signal,” he went on to add. McGee also said that combined amphibious and airborne air assault operations would be “an extremely complicated joint operation.”
“That would leave them in that [Taiwan Strait] gap, 90 to 100 miles [145km to 161km] — that would lead them susceptible to all the fire that could be brought to an invading force that was already telegraphing their intentions,” he said.
Military Aid Assurances
In his opening remarks at the same hearing, Mike Rogers (R-AL), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, condemned Washington’s Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme, which facilitates arms deals with the island, calling it “clearly broken.”
“Taiwan is waiting on the delivery of over $18 billion in FMS aid. Some of it dates back to 2016. That’s unacceptable,” he said, calling for reforms of the programme.
Rogers added that although Washington’s official policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan has helped prevent an invasion for the past 40 years, “a rapidly modernising Chinese military and an increasingly despotic leader” should push the Biden administration to “revisit the policy.”
The discussions on Taiwan’s defence come amid reports of increasing Chinese aggression near the island. Earlier this week, 103 Chinese warplanes flew near the island over a 24-hour period, marking a new record in recent times.