On Sunday, German Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action Robert Habeck announced that the country could become fully independent of Russian crude oil imports by the end of summer, adding that the government has already reduced gas, oil, and coal imports from Russia.
In a string of tweets, Habeck said, “Hard coal imports from Russia have already been reduced from 50 per cent to around eight per cent since the beginning of the year. The conclusion of new sales contracts for hard coal from Russia was forbidden, while procurement from other countries was pushed ahead.”
ℹ️ Steinkohleimporte aus Russland konnten seit Jahresbeginn von 50 Prozent bereits auf rund acht Prozent gesenkt werden. Der Abschluss neuer Kaufverträge für Steinkohle aus Russland wurde verboten, die Beschaffung aus anderen Ländern parallel stark vorangetrieben.
— Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (@BMWK) May 1, 2022
“Russian oil imports were essentially reduced to the remaining quantities required by the refineries in Leuna and Schwedt - that’s only about 12 per cent in total. Complete independence from Russian crude oil imports by late summer is therefore realistic,” he added.
Habeck noted the fall in the share of Russian gas deliveries from 55% to 35% by mid-April and increased gas procurement from the Netherlands and Norway. He also mentioned the increased import of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) but said that gas conversion remains a significant challenge.
Germany's progress so far on energy divestment from Russia
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) May 1, 2022
Coal
Pre-war: 45%
Now: 8%
Oil
Pre-war: 35%
Now: 12%
Gas
Pre-war: 55%
Now: 35%
Emphasising the need to reduce dependence on Russian energy imports, Habeck stated, “All these steps require an enormous joint effort, and they also mean costs that the economy and consumers feel. But they are necessary if we no longer want to be blackmailed by Russia.”
Simultaneously, German Minister for Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock declared that the country is ready to support an oil embargo on Russian imports. Baerbock told ARD Television: “And we are preparing this in such a way, that we could, if necessary, keep it up over the coming years.”
Talking about Western sanctions on Russia, she stressed that lifting sanctions could only be considered once all Russian forces withdraw from Ukraine.
⚡️Germany is 'days away' from becoming independent of Russian oil.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 26, 2022
During a visit to Warsaw, German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck said his country is “very, very” close to independence of Russian oil thanks to the efforts to diversify suppliers and the support from Poland.
Earlier in April, German Minister of Finance Christian Lindner had said that Germany was firmly against imposing an oil embargo on Russia as it would not be able to withstand the economic impact. Furthermore, Chancellor Olaf Scholz had said that Berlin can no longer provide any more military support to Kyiv, as it had exhausted its reserves.
Ukraine has criticised Scholz for his “weak response to the [Ukraine] crisis” and even allegedly refused a visit by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to Kyiv, saying he is “not welcome.” However, Germany appeared to take notice of the mounting criticism against the Scholz administration, as Baerbock asserted, “We will halve oil by the summer and will be at 0 by the end of the year, and then gas will follow, in a joint European roadmap, because our joint exit, the complete exit of the European Union (EU), is our common strength.”
Similarly, on Thursday, the lower house of the German parliament approved a petition backing the delivery of “effective weapons and complex systems including heavy arms” to Ukraine to counter the Russian invasion. According to Bundestag Vice President Wolfgang Kubicki, the petition was supported by the ruling coalition and the opposition. It was approved with 586 votes in favour, 100 votes against, and seven abstentions. The delivery of heavy weapons, including anti-aircraft systems and armoured vehicles, followed weeks of Germany refusing to send tanks to Ukraine over fears that Russia would interpret it as a declaration of war.
Meanwhile, the German central bank has warned that cutting all imports of Russian oil could result in higher inflation and a decline in the county’s economic output by 5%.
The EU is currently mulling over a sixth round of sanctions against Russia, including an embargo on Russian oil. For weeks, the bloc has been discussing an oil embargo, which was delayed due to opposition from some member countries, including Germany. Earlier in March, Germany had refused to support a ban on Russia’s energy, citing the bloc’s dependence on Russian oil and gas.
However, some government sources have claimed that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is now willing to support a bloc-wide embargo on Russian oil.
⚡️Germany says it won’t block EU embargo on Russian oil.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 29, 2022
However, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck says that such a move might be “counterproductive” as it could “allow Russia to supply other countries for an even higher price,” Bloomberg reported on April 29.
Germany’s stance changes amid intense criticism from Ukraine and the Baltic nations (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), who have argued that energy imports from Russia is funding its war in Ukraine. The EU currently pays Russia $850 million per day for oil and natural gas imports.
That being said, Germany has gradually reduced its dependence on Russian imports. Before the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Russia accounted for 35% of Germany’s energy needs, a figure that Habeck claims has now dropped to 12%.
The ban on Russian oil and reducing reliance on its energy imports are likely to be discussed at the upcoming Ambassadors’ meeting on Wednesday in Brussels. That being said, even if Germany has now signalled its intention to get behind such a move, the positions of Italy, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Spain, and Greece remain unclear.
Germany has refused to be “blackmailed” by Russia and rejected Putin’s demand of making all gas payments in rubles instead of euros or dollars. Putin has also threatened to cut all “unfriendly countries” from Russia’s gas supply if they fail to comply. Acting on its threat, Russia cut gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria last week after they refused to pay for gas deliveries in rubles.