The deputy director of the United States’ (US) Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), David Cohen, said that Chinese President Xi Jinping wants the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027.
CNN intelligence and national security correspondent Katie Bo Lillis tweeted on Friday that the CIA’s Deputy Director David Cohen had told her that Chinese President Xi Jinping wants the PLA “to have the capability to take control of Taiwan by force” within five years. However, Cohen added that the US’ intelligence community “does not currently believe” that Beijing had decided on whether to proceed.
Xi “has not made the decision to do that, but he has asked his military to put him in a position where if that’s what he wanted to do, he would be able to,” Lillis quoted Cohen as saying. Cohen further noted that the intelligence community has assessed “as a whole” that the Chinese leader’s “interest in Taiwan” is to gain control “through nonmilitary means.”
China’s actions and statements have long shown that it has remained steadfastly focused on reunification. Admiral Philip Davidson, the former head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, predicted last year that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in six years. Mirroring the prediction, Jin Canrong, a Chinese professor of international studies at Renmin University of China, added that the 2027 deadline also has a very symbolic value for the Communist Party because it will be the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Moreover, Xi has called on the PLA to fully modernise itself by 2027.
“He has not made the decision to do that, but he has asked his military to put him in a position where if that's what he wanted to do, he would be able to. It's still the assessment of the IC as a whole that Xi's interest in Taiwan is to get control through nonmilitary means.”
— Katie Bo Lillis (@KatieBoLillis) September 16, 2022
To this end, US President Joe Biden said once again on Thursday that US troops would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. CBS’ “60 Minutes” correspondent Scott Pelley asked Biden during an interview what Xi should know about the Biden administration’s commitment to Taiwan. Biden replied that Washington agreed to what it “signed onto a long time ago” and that “there’s one China policy.” “Taiwan makes their own judgments about their independence. We are not moving-- we’re not encouraging their being independent. We’re not-- that-- that’s their decision,” he said.
When Pelley asked if the US military would help defend the island against a possible Chinese invasion, Biden declared, “Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack.” Pelley requested for clarification by asking if “unlike Ukraine…US forces, US men and women would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion?,” to which Biden replied: “Yes.”
Joe Biden said US troops would defend Taiwan if China attacked but then his White House handlers immediately said that wasn’t true and American policy hasn’t changed. This is at least the fourth time this has happened recently. pic.twitter.com/5SRuAMfWS7
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) September 19, 2022
Biden’s comments are not unprecedented. In May, Biden was asked during a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, if the US would be willing to help Taiwan in the event of an invasion, as it did with Ukraine. “Yes. That’s the commitment we made,” Biden replied. “We agree with the One China policy. We signed on to it, and all the attendant agreements made from there, but the idea that it can be taken by force, just taken by force, is (just not) appropriate,” he stressed.
Biden’s latest comments on the self-governing island, which China claims to be part of its own territory, are seen as a departure from Washington’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” on the matter. Crucially, it marks the fourth time in little over a year that the US leader has emphasised that Washington would defend Taipei.
A White House spokesperson sought to engage in damage control after the president’s comments by saying that the US’ policy towards Taiwan had not changed. “The President has said this before, including in Tokyo earlier this year. He also made clear then that our Taiwan policy hasn’t changed. That remains true,” the spokesperson said.
Reuters reported that the Chinese embassy in Washington made no immediate response to a request for comment. However, Biden’s comment is sure to anger Beijing, which expressed great displeasure over US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island in August and launched unprecedented military drills in areas surrounding the self-governing island.